The "Implementing the Strategic Action Programme for the South China Sea and Gulf of Thailand" (SCS SAP Project) completed its Inception Phase with the 1st Steering Committee Meeting held online on the 29 and 30 of June, 2021 with official representatives from Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam and the UNEP Task Manager for the project, with the support of . U.S. Navy/Handout[/caption]. Southeast Asia will inevitably be rendered subordinate and compliant to Chinas will. But the South China Sea has been dangerously overfished. US and China is engaging in this sea to control all significance. The 2022 Philippine Election: Trouble for Democracy and Foreign Relations Ahead? The primary challenge to American regional predominance came from Maoist China first through the Korean War and then via communist insurgencies throughout Southeast Asia culminating in the Vietnam War (1963-75). Does US-hegemonic decline translate into a fight between democracy and autocracy in maintaining a benign world order? Follow the Asia Program on Twitter @AsiaProgram. The most likely single scenario for a major military engagement against a great power adversary would be one against China centered on the South China Sea. This alignment will further U.S. goals: to continue to mount a forward defense, to keep the seas and skies free, and to promote prosperity and the spread of democracy. The United States needs to consider a wider variety of non-military responses to Chinas efforts to control the South China Sea, and more effectively build a local coalition to support these responses. The message will be clear; the era of American international leadership and predominance is over and a new preeminent power has taken its place. In addition, this thesis intends to propose a solution to the dispute by pulling from a variety of sources. Moving forward, freedom of navigation and routine presence operations should be executed on a regular basis to demonstrate U.S. resolve to fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows. China, for example, has asserted a maritime claim to a large majority of the South China Sea that is not consistent with international law. The United States calls this treaty the Law of the Sea Convention.. Thus, it is said that the South China Sea could be the battleground of World War III. Therefore, the SCS has geopolitical and geostrategic importance for the energy and economic security of China and East Asian countries; but also for the USA as $1.2 trillion of its trade moves through the waters. Center for Strategic and International Studies Less sexy but no less important is a forthcoming arrangement by which Vietnam will allow the United States military to preposition supplies and equipment in Da Nang on the central coast. The United States also faces a challenge in enforcing international law in the South China Sea. The geopolitical message was unmistakable: Western expectations that China was transitioning toward political democracy were entirely illusory. That included nearly 40 percent of Chinas total trade and 90 percent of petroleum imports by China, Japan, and South Korea and nearly 6 percent of total U.S. trade. Under President Xi Jinping, Beijing has undertaken more assertive policies that have greatly improved Beijings position in the South China Sea. Tokyo and Manila agreed to a strategic partnership in 2011. Nevertheless, Beijing had taken its first overt step to control the South China Sea. Aung San Suu Kyi has no interest in antagonizing Chinawhich shares a border with Burma and is a major source of foreign investmentbut nor can she afford to alienate the United States or India. In addition, tensions have been raised with the Philippines after assertive Chinese naval patrols which they described as aggressive action. Meanwhile, Japan is providing ten new multi-role vessels to the Philippine Coast Guard; Manila is also interested in procuring used P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft from Tokyo. A U.S. Navy crewman aboard a P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft views a computer screen purportedly showing Chinese construction on the reclaimed land of Fiery Cross Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea in this still image from video provided by the United States Navy May 21, 2015. Persistent American military presence at the eastern, southern and western points of the compassespecially when combined with regional states advancing ISR capabilities, for which the United States is providing investmentwould enable the United States to respond rapidly to incidents in disputed island chains or to Chinese attacks on U.S. and allied naval and air assets or on commercial shipping. It is little surprise, then, that Southeast Asian states are drawing closer to the United Statesboth seeking aid in developing their own defense capabilities and hoping that stronger ties act as a deterrent to Chinese assertiveness. Then again, China may see its efforts in the South China Sea blunted. The second will analyze the strategic landscape in and around the South China Sea. Abstract. South China Sea has geo-strategic, geo-politic and geo-economic importance due to half of the world trade passage and presence of precious resources of oil and gas. Figure 3 highlights the influenced areas. Washingtons relationship with Hanoi will make that more palatable. We will defend freedom of the seas and skies.. Although ultimately unsuccessful in Vietnam, America emerged in a surprisingly advantageous strategic position in Southeast Asia with alliances intact with Thailand and the Philippines and friendly ties with Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Ironically, the United States is drawing closer to communist Vietnam, in which human rights are serially abused, while growing apart from a major Vietnam War ally, largely due to concerns over democratic backsliding. The area is globally important for a few reasons. Speaking to Anadolu Agency on Thursday, Bonji Ohara, a senior fellow at the Tokyo-based Sasakawa Peace Foundation, said the marginal sea is key to China's security. Chinas island outposts will increase this advantage as Chinese aircraft, ships, and paramilitary vessels will be able to rest and resupply in the southern portion of the South China Sea. Countries across the region prioritized economic growth and modernization. As the pivot of global economy continues to move east it is highly likely that 21st century geopolitics will continue to revolve around Asia and the SCS. Since 2014, China has stepped up the construction of artificial islands over the disputed Spratlys and Paracels in the SCS, causing an escalation of tensions, upsetting stability. At the economic front, it is estimated that an annual global trade of $5.3 trillion passes through the SCS. If this sounds overstated or overwrought it is not. The result has been to heighten tensions and allow Chinese forces to more easily project military power across the region. Three years ago an arbitration tribunal issued a decision finding that Chinas maritime claims in the South China Sea are inconsistent with the Law of the Sea Convention. Any temptation to alter U.S. policies in the South China Sea to preserve cooperation with China in other areas is unnecessary and potentially counterproductive. Diplomatic, informational, legal, and economic responses are currently underrepresented in U.S. China policy, and their incorporation into the policy toolkit will be important for successfully dissuading China over the long-term. Countering Chinas efforts has become a key test of perceived U.S. commitment to many in the region. Allied efforts to support U.S. force posture in the region will remain vital, but the United States should also expect allies to make greater contributions in responding to Chinese coercion. by M A Hossain 3 March 2023 The geostrategic significance of Bangladesh derives from its strategic location at the crossroads of South and Southeast Asia, endowing it with a pivotal role in the re India is training crews for Vietnams new Kilo-class submarines and will sell Vietnam BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles. While consistency in U.S. messaging and policy execution is important, it should be balanced by carefully calculated unpredictability in operations and tactics to prevent Beijing from becoming overly confident in its ability to anticipate U.S. reactions. Walter Lohman hasdescribedCobra Gold as an achievement that has proved useful for military missions, such as joint patrols of vital sea lanes, and noncombat missions, such as disaster relief following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2008 Cyclone Nargis in Burma.. 2009 China issues two diplomatic notes that appear to claim a majority of the South China Sea. The United States can stand firm on its principles and deter China from undermining the regional order while maintaining a productive relationship. China remains uncompromising on sovereignty, has increased its capability to enforce its de facto control in disputed areas, and has sought to advance its claims while staying below the threshold for direct military conflict with the United States. Miguel . It has increased its military budget by over 8.5% in recent years and this is likely to continue for the near future. Thailand, of course, has been an important security partner for the United States. "First, South China Sea is important for the strategic patrol of Chinese SSBN [nuclear ballistic missile submarine], which needs to enter west Pacific Ocean for its nuclear deterrence against the US," he explained. In 2012, then Chinese president Hu Jintao voiced his desire to make China a powerful maritime nation. Utapao has been suggested as a permanent Southeast Asian Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) hub. The area includes several hundred small islands, rocks, and reefs, with the majority located in the Paracel and Spratly Island chains. Importantly, the countries of maritime Southeast Asia are not aligning only with the United States, but with a grouping of external states concerned with the nature of Chinas rise. That should, of course, remain the goal, but Washington must recognize that Thailand is in the midst of a decade-long political crisis, which is unlikely to be resolved until after King Bhumibols passing and the royal succession is completed. In a first, a Modi-Obamajoint statementlast year explicitly raised concerns over the South China Sea and called on all parties to avoid the threat or use of force and pursue resolution of territorial and maritime disputes through all peaceful means.. Enduring U.S. interestsfreedom of navigation and overflight, support for the rules-based international order, and the peaceful resolution of disputesare at risk in the region. Seventh Fleet transits regularly between the Pacific and Indian Oceans (including the Bay of Bengal). All countries want positive economic and security ties with both China and the United States. Rival countries have wrangled over territory in the South China Sea for centuries, but tension has steadily increased in recent years. The United States and its Pacific allies should consider whether it is feasible and sensible to coordinate the activities of USAID, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA), and Australias Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. What countries are claiming sovereignty, and to what extent is this disrupting regional stability? The United States will continue to stand with our allies and partners to uphold the order that we helped build, Pencesaid. The reaction of the Chinese Foreign Minister was incendiary and revealing. In April, Australian Defence Force personnel joined the U.S.-Philippines Balikatan maneuvers, which included an amphibious landing exercise. In a meeting attended by the foreign ministers of 26 nations from the broader region, Clinton simply asserted that the South China Sea was subject to multiple territorial claims and a multinational mechanism should be established to find a peaceful diplomatic solution. The South China Sea has become important to the US because of China's challenge to the liberal rules-based order that America has promoted since the Pacific war. Yet, it was and is all of that. Accordingly, Malaysia's note verbale serves as the strongest stance of Malaysia on the SCS in recent times and aligns itself with the top priority of its DWP. Chinese missiles on the mainland already hold all U.S. Asian bases at risk. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW The sea-lanes that pass through the South China Sea are the busiest, most important, maritime waterways in the world. Thanks to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), American power projection capabilities will be regularly present in the Philippines for the first time since the early 1990s. The outcome of that contest will profoundly influence, if not shape, the 21st century world. The U.S. military used Utapao for refueling efforts during operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s, as well as for multinational relief efforts after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and April 2015 Nepal earthquake., The U.S.-Thai alliance has also served as a platform for important training exercises. Its strategic economic importance and its geographic location at the confluence of several spheres of influence have rendered it one of the "world's hotspots". Given these advantages, Washington can afford to focus on the long game in Asia, confident that Chinese adventurism is likely to push many states to turn to the United States for support. The new administration should provide authoritative explanations of these operations and not alter their schedule in response to Chinese pressure. Should they be neutral, China may lord over the southern reaches of the South China Sea from military bases on its newly created and expanded islands in the Spratlys. In the near term, this could lead to sales of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance equipment as well as patrol boats to allow Hanoi to better keep an eye on goings-on in the western South China Sea. Shortly after the ARF concluded, an official spokesman for the Chinese Defense Ministry asserted Chinas indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea. Vietnam and the Philippines have also attempted to form a strategic alliance with Japan in their struggle with China in the SCS. To facilitate capacity building, Washington should preserve regional defense relationships while recognizing that the ability of the United States to partner with frontline states depends on their cooperation and adherence to good governance and human rights. With Burma internationally isolated for much of the past three decades, Beijing invested heavily in that countrys leadership. China, however, must now balance its continental concerns, which remain complex, against its new dependence on the maritime domain. China has harassed U.S. Navy ships operating in the South China Sea, warned military flights to stay away from its artificial islands, and recently seized a U.S. drone operating in the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. 2016 The Arbitration Tribunal rules in favor of the Philippines. In other words, his primary concern is that the rivalry over the South China Sea could derail Beijing's strong strategic focus on the Taiwan issue.25 Academic perspectives on the South China Sea are important and may actually be quite influential. Brunei's statement seems to present a unified front with the Philippines and Vietnam, in preparation for its ASEAN chairmanship in 2021, where ASEAN and China hope to finalise the formulation of the code of conduct to reduce tensions in the South China Sea. From busiest . As building of military facilities continued in 2015, the US explicitly announced its opposition to these constructions and tasked surveillance assets to conduct over flights in the SCS and significantly raised tensions. Improved governance will lead to stronger economies over the long term and dampen the influence of Chinese dirty money. It was the first time that had ever occurred. The United States, moreover, should work with its other Pacific alliesAustralia, South Korea and especially Japanto consider ways that they can lead efforts to expand infrastructure investment in Southeast Asia, perhaps by reforming and enlarging the Asian Development Bank or by launching a joint infrastructure investment fund. The United States has been largely successful at preserving its own freedom of action and deterring outright Chinese aggression in the South China Sea through routine presence operations. If Chinese coercion goes unchallenged by the United States, it will send a dangerous signal about the strength of the U.S. alliance system and lessen the appeal of the United States as a security partner. The conflict and tension over competing sovereignty claims in the South China Sea has grown considerably in the past 5-10 years. Over the longer term, American defense contractors may have their sights set on sales of fighter aircraft and attack helicopters. All this will occur in a region that is increasingly the vibrant center of the world economy. The United States now has the opportunity to secure for another generation the peace that has held in Asia for nearly four decades now. South China Sea is a strategic sea lane is significance for connectivity, navigation, trade and resources is a global hotspot as a potential flashpoint. Media Relations Manager, External Relations. Certainly, the ongoing reform process and the opening of relations with the United States amount to a strategic setback for Chinas position in the region. China has tried to effectively annex the whole South China Sea region as its territorial waters, according to Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). These same sea-lanes are a vital military artery as the U.S. February 27, 2023. Instead, perceptions of weakness may encourage leaders in Beijing to embrace more assertive behavior. Importantly, the Air Forces presence on Luzon, perhaps to be followed by regular naval rotations in Subic Bay, will put the United States in a better position to quickly seal up the Luzon Strait, which links the South China Sea to the Philippine Sea and the wider Pacific Ocean. This has continued in to the present day. It is growing more difficult to discuss Southeast Asia without discussing Japan, India and Australia, whose ties to the region and to each other are maturing and whose militarieswhether represented by personnel, aircraft, or warshipsare increasingly present in the region. by Geoffrey Hartman China has shown it is willing to accept substantial risk to achieve its ends, and has engaged in outright coercion against weaker neighbors like the Philippines and Vietnam. Most of China's contested land borders were remote areas with few people, natural resources or clear military utility. This principled stand allows the United States to defend its interests without embroiling itself in the murky sovereignty claims at the heart of the South China Sea dispute. It can receive large aircraft (including C-17s and C-130s); it is close to a deep seaport; and it has infrastructure capable of handling command and control systems.