A number of sub-basins are nested within each other, as shown in the right panel along with their relative sizes. RSUM[Traduit par la rdaction] Le projet de scnarios de changement climatique du bassin du Columbia (CBCCSP) a t conu comme une base de donnes hydrologiques complte pour appuyer les activits de planification, dvaluation des rpercussions et d'adaptation dans la rgion pacifique nordouest menes par une communaut d'utilisateurs diversifie disposant de capacits techniques varies dans une large gamme dchelles spatiales. A low pressure system slowly moving offshore is forecast to spin moisture into the Columbia Basin Sunday as it meanders closer to the Southern Oregon Coast. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. One of the first major efforts of CIG in this area was focused on the preparation of a detailed and comprehensive regional assessment report for the PNW for the 1999 National Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change in the United States (ultimately published as Mote et al., Citation2003). Fig. These include the full meteorological forcings for the model (variables 18), a suite of water balance variables simulated by the model (variables 916), and five different PET metrics (variables 1721) (Elsner et al., Citation2010). Those who lack their own hydrologic model, but wish to make additional runs themselves, can obtain the calibrated VIC model implementation. 2013. These approaches were further developed and refined during the WACCIA in 2009 (Miles, Elsner, Littell, Binder, & Lettenmaier, Citation2010), which included assessments of aquatic and forest ecosystem impacts (Littell et al., Citation2010; Mantua, Tohver, & Hamlet, Citation2010). The strategy for model calibration used in the CBCCSP was to calibrate 11 relatively large sub-basins within the domain (Fig. From ecosystems, communities, and infrastructure, to our way of lifeeverything will be affected. 1 Map of the selected streamflow locations supported by the CBCCSP. Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab. 8). Lvapotranspiration potentielle augmente dans la majeure partie de la rgion du Pacifique et du NordOuest en t cause des tempratures plus leves; cependant, lvaporation relle est rduite dans presque tous les secteurs du domaine parce que lvapotranspiration est principalement limite par l'eau en t et les prcipitations estivales diminuent dans les simulations. These emerging needs ultimately led to the CBCCSP, and similar efforts in BC led by PCIC (Werner, Schnorbus, Shrestha, & Eckstrand, Citation2013). (Citation2010) interpolated existing 1/8 degree model parameters to 1/16 degree and also included previously calibrated soil parameters for the Yakima sub-basin (please see acknowledgements). The multi-model ensemble 30-year mean annual temperature increases by 2.8 C (5.0 C) by late 21st century under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) over the 1979-1990 baseline, with 18% (24%) more warming in summer. The Columbia Basin-Boundary region is already experiencing a climate thats different from 50 years ago. A set of simpler, lumped-storage reservoir operations models was used to quantify impacts in a number of smaller water supply systems. 6). Friday Mostly sunny. Impacts of 21st-century climate change on hydrologic extremes in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. Three VIC model calibration parameters described above were varied in the optimization process, and six error metrics were used to define the objective function: squared correlation coefficient (R 2), NSE, the NSE of log-transformed data, annual volume error, mean hydrograph peak difference, RMSE, and number of sign changes in the simulated streamflow errors. Future work on the project will likely focus on expanding the number of streamflow sites for which products are available (e.g., inclusion of additional sites in coastal Oregon in the site-specific products) and providing a comprehensive suite of products associated with CMIP5 results (Taylor, Stouffer, & Meehl, Citation2012) associated with IPCC AR5. Preparing for climatic change: The water, salmon, and forests of the Pacific Northwest. Figure 1. These spatial variations in the change in AET are broadly reflective of the dominant drivers of AET in each case. The same procedure is followed for estimating extreme low flows, except the lowest 7-day flow is extracted for each water year, and 7Q10 (the extreme 7-day low flow with a return interval of 10 years) is estimated. Act relating to water resource management in the Columbia river basin, H.R. Gridded databases providing full GIS coverage of important hydrometeorological variables in support of a wide range of research applications, including ecosystem research. In other words, although at these sites the model results do not match the observations in the absolute sense (large bias), the relative changes follow the observed variations quite well (high R 2). 8). Inset numbers at the upper left in the future projections are the percentage changes in 1 April SWE averaged over each grid cell in the entire domain. Three statistical downscaling approaches were selected or developed for the study: Composite Delta (CD): regional average projections compiled from 10 GCMs (Elsner et al., Citation2010), Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD): (Salath, Citation2005; Salath, Mote, & Wiley, Citation2007; Wood, Leung, Sridhar, & Lettenmaier, Citation2004; Wood, Maurer, Kumar, & Lettenmaier, Citation2002), Hybrid Delta (HD): (Hamlet et al., 2010a). Snover, A. K., Hamlet, A. F., Lee, S.-Y., Mantua, N. J., Salath, E. P. Jr, Steed, R., & Tohver, I. Each product is provided as a gridded file (one file for each variable and calendar month) in ASCII format. We should note that glaciers and deep groundwater (e.g., contributions to streamflow from large confined aquifers) are not simulated by the VIC model, and impacts in areas profoundly influenced by these hydrologic features may not be well characterized in the simulations (Wenger et al., Citation2010). Reductions in spring snowpack and summer streamflow, for example, are relatively modest in the Canadian portions of the basin because of cold winter temperatures that delay warming-related impacts to seasonal snowpack (Elsner et al., Citation2010). (*Modified flows are essentially naturalized flows with a consistent level of consumptive demand for water supply subtracted for the entire time series.). 10 Left panel: Changes in Q100 for 297 streamflow locations expressed as a ratio of Q100 for the future period to Q100 for the historical period based on the average of the nine or ten HD scenarios for the B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods. 12). A primary focus of the Assessment is to generate future climate change flow at more than 300 locations across the Columbia River Basin (Basin) and evaluated the potential impact of those flows at specific sub-basins within the Basin. In particular, it is clear that Canada will have not only about 50% of the reservoir storage in the CRB (Hamlet, Citation2003) but also an increasingly dominant portion of the natural water storage as snowpack in the future. These hydrologic studies support detailed assessment of the economic impacts of climate change on irrigation and important crops in WA (Yorgey et al., Citation2011), which in turn will inform decisions regarding best use of funding to improve water supply benefits in WA under climate change. Following the WACCIA in 2009, the WA Legislature, via the Act relating to State Agency Climate Leadership (2009), charged WDOE and other state agencies with preparing a first climate change adaptation plan for WA. July temperatures hover in the 90s, with several afternoons during the summer pushing the thermometer reading as high as 100 to 105 degrees. Gridded meteorological datasets (daily total precipitation and maximum and minimum daily temperature) at 1/16 degree latitude-longitude resolution (approximately 7km by 5km) were constructed for the study from observed station records for the period 1915 to 2006. Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Open File Report SW 02-002. Retrieved from, CIG (Climate Impacts Group). Gusts up to 20 mph in the morning. Produced by, Clean Energy and Green Building Major Projects, Private and public sector clean energy and green building construction projects valued at $15M or more for the 3rd quarter of each year. Elsner MM, et al. Also, at about this time, successful lawsuits challenging NEPA studies because they had not addressed climate change effects began to appear (Hamlet, Citation2011). Wind speed data are based on interpolated NCEP reanalysis data (Kalnay et al., Citation1996) using methods described by Elsner et al. Key products from the study include detailed summary data for about 300 river sites in the PNW and monthly GIS products for 21 hydrologic variables over the entire study domain. (2010). As mentioned above, 20062007 was something of a turning point for regional stakeholders considering future actions to prepare for climate change. Thanks also to Nancy Stephan (BPA), John Fazio and Jim Ruff (NWPCC), Allan Chapman and Ben Kagasniemi (BCME), and Barry Norris (OWRD) for their contributions to the initial study design. %%EOF Building the Columbia Basin-Boundary Region's Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change. Detailed information about the study can be found under Documentation, while model results can be found under Data. The bias-corrected monthly values are then used to rescale the simulated daily flow sequences produced by the hydrologic model to produce bias-corrected daily streamflows. The basalt mostly came from fissures in the ground, perhaps sourced from a hot spot that is now beneath the Yellowstone Caldera. Explore the basics of climate science arrow . Naturalized or modified flow data were available at a number of locations in the PNW. The six panels display results from the combination of three time periods (rows) and two emissions scenarios (columns) used in the HD downscaling process. Additional meteorological forcings needed for hydrologic model simulations (e.g., net incoming long- and shortwave radiation, dew point temperature, etc.) 5; Yakima River at Parker in Fig. The CBCCSP database has been a valuable public resource that has dramatically reduced costs in a number of high-visibility studies in the PNW and western United States focused on technical coordination and planning. Hydrologic climate change scenarios for the Pacific Northwest Columbia River basin and coastal drainages. Naturalized flow products from specific sites were also used to provide naturalized inflows at model nodes needed to run the USBR MODSIM (Labadie, Citation2007) reservoir model for the Snake River basin. Depending on their needs and/or level of technical sophistication, users can tap into the study databases at a number of different levels. By that same year, a large number of natural resources management agencies in the US federal system (e.g., the USFS, USNPS, USBR, USFWS, FERC, FEMA, NMFS) were actively engaged in educating and training their upper-level leadership and staff about climate change and were attempting to acquire appropriate data and information to support long-term planning and develop long-term climate change adaptation strategies. But as researchers continue to fine tune climate models, shifting demand for water now must be accounted for, say Washington State University scientists. Additional details on the approach and methods are available in the CBCCSP study report (Hamlet, Carrasco, et al., Citation2010a). The USFS and USFWS studies have supported a number of high-visibility ecosystem studies, including assessment of the impacts of changing snowpack on wolverine populations (McKelvey et al., Citation2011) and subsequent proposed ESA listing of wolverine populations, and comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts to trout species over the west (Wenger et al., Citation2011). Schnorbus, M. A., Bennett, K. E., Werner, A. T., & Berland, A. J. %PDF-1.6 % 2012. As noted above, the study also supports planning efforts over a wide range of geographic scales. The CBCCSP also included fine-scale hydrologic modelling using DHSVM (Wigmosta et al., Citation1994, Citation2002) in four pilot watersheds in the PNW. Originating in British Columbia, it flows 1,214 miles to the Pacific Ocean near Astoria, Oregon. The Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project (CBCCSP) was conceived as a comprehensive hydrologic database to support climate change planning, impacts assessment, and adaptation in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) by a diverse user community with varying technical capacity over a wide range of spatial scales. Simulation of spatial variability in snow and frozen soil, A multi-model ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin, CIG (Climate Impacts Group). In 2008, many of the financial and institutional barriers to climate change assessment and adaptation that had been erected over the preceding eight years by the Bush Administration were substantially reduced by the incoming Obama Administration. By late 21st century, annual precipitation increases by 5% (8%), with an 8% (14%) winter increase and a 4% (10%) summer decrease, but because . A comprehensive website was to be developed to serve all the data produced by the study, at no cost, to the general public, management professionals agency staff members, scientific researchers, private sector consultants, etc. An Overview of the Columbia Basin Climat . : From Icefield to Estuary: The Columbia Basin / Du champ de glace l'estuaire : Le bassin du Columbia, 6 Use of products and information by stakeholders, water professionals, and researchers, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2013.819555, http://cses.washington.edu/cig/res/ia/waccia.shtml, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00417.1, http://warm.atmos.washington.edu/2860/products/sites/, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1994)033<0140:ASTMFM>2.0.CO;2, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<2715:IMOET>2.0.CO;2, http://warm.atmos.washington.edu/2860/report/, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2002)128:2(91), doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1999)125:6(333), doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2009)135:6(440), doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<2313:SOTEHS>2.0.CO;2, http://cses.washington.edu/picea/USFS/pub/Littell_etal_2010/Littell_etal._2011_Regional_Climatic_And_Hydrologic_Change_USFS_USFWS_JVA_17Apr11.pdf, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2, http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/5/, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2, http://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/newsrelease/detail.cfm?RecordID=39123, http://www.usbr.gov/pn/programs/climatechange/reports/index.html, http://www.fws.gov/landscape-conservation/lcc.html, http://www.ecy.wa.gov/biblio/1112011.html, Medicine, Dentistry, Nursing & Allied Health, Simulated daily evapotranspiration from all sources, actual evaporation from all sources (canopy evaporation, evaporation from bare soil, transpiration, and snow sublimation), natural vegetation, no water limit, but no vegetation stomatal resistance, Extreme 7-day low flow value with a 10-year recurrence interval. 135 0 obj <>stream To produce the bias-adjusted flows, a bias correction procedure using quantile mapping techniques is applied (Elsner et al., Citation2010; Snover et al., Citation2003; Vano et al., Citation2010). This is likely because soil moisture is higher in summer west of the Cascade Range and evapotranspiration is mostly energy limited, whereas east of the mountains the late summer soil moisture is already very low in the current climate and increasing evapotranspiration does not result in much additional soil moisture stress. The Columbia River is the fourth largest river in North America and the largest river in the Pacific Northwest. Climate change scenarios for water planning studies, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, CropSyst, a cropping systems simulation model, Deep groundwater mediates streamflow response to climate warming in the Oregon Cascades, An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, An improved algorithm for estimating incident daily solar radiation from measurements of temperature, humidity, and precipitation. This was coordinated through the River Management Joint Operating Committee (RMJOC), a sub-committee of the Joint Operating Committee which was established through direct funding Memorandum of Agreements between BPA, Reclamation, and the USACE. West-wide studies to support USFS and USFWS needs (including current efforts to include California) will have a budget of less than half this amount, a level of efficiency that would not have been achievable without the CBCCSP pilot effort. The process was also significantly improved by researchers at PCIC who reconfigured and optimized the code to run more efficiently on a Linux cluster (Schnorbus, Bennett, Werner, & Berland, Citation2011). About 15 sites in western Washington, outside the CRB, were also included in support of the 2009 WACCIA. Naturalized and modified streamflow data were used to produce bias-corrected streamflow realizations (see below). Based on, Learn more about the impacts of climate change, Learn how the climate is changing in your area, Learn how our region is responding, and how you can be part of the solution, BC Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development. Oregon Water Resources Department. Yakima River Basin Study Snowmelt-dominant basins in the United States, which are somewhat warmer and do not experience as much precipitation change in the scenarios, show increases in winter flow, earlier and reduced peak flow in spring, followed by an earlier streamflow recession and lower flows in late summer (e.g., Columbia River at The Dalles in Fig. 5 Examples of summary plots for monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) (mm) (averaged over the upstream basin area) and raw streamflow not adjusted for bias (cubic metres per second) for the Skagit River at Mount Vernon. Lee. Blue lines show average historical values (19162006) (repeated in each panel).